As part of the analysis titled “Supply Security of Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Imports to Germany,” the EWI evaluates the importof green hydrogen and ammonia from selected countries around the world with which Germany already has hydrogen partnerships. The study was conducted with financial support from the “Hydrogen and Molecules Funding Initiative.” The initiative is part of the Society for the Promotion of the Institute for Energy Economics at the University of Cologne e.V.
EFES at the Center of the Investigation
The analysiscompares the production and transportation costs for hydrogen and ammonia in 2030—calculated using the EWI Global PtX Cost Tool—with the countries’ EFES scores. The EFES is a country-specific score calculated based on four sub-indicators: economy, politics, social factors, and energy. A higher score indicates that the country in question has better conditions for investment and resulting hydrogen exports.
While procurement costs would determine economic efficiency, the EWI states that the political, social, and economic stability of the exporting country is crucial for security of supply.
Hydrogen: Spain and Finland as Import Partners
While domestic hydrogen production could be an option for meeting Germany’s needs , as it combines high performance with low costs, its potential is limited: The “National Hydrogen Strategy” calls for imports to account for up to 70 percent of total supply by 2030.
The results of the analysis show that imports from EU countries such as Spain and Finland are associated with comparatively low costs and a high score. Nevertheless, their potential to supply Germany remains limited, as a portion of their production is likely to be needed to meet domestic demand. Imports from Morocco or Turkey might be somewhat less expensive, but due to a lower score, they carry greater risks.
Long-distance transport of ammonia is possible
The cost of importing ammonia, on the other hand, would be more heavily influenced by production costs. This is because the specific transportation costs are lower than those for hydrogen. Consequently, given strong production potential, even long transportation distances could be accepted. Countries such as Australia and Canada could thus become potential sources of imports.
However, a global market for green ammonia could emerge. This could put Germany in competition with other countries for ammonia imports.
Conclusion
Dr.-Ing. Ann-Kathrin Klaas, Head of Research Area at the EWI, conducted the analysis together with her colleagues. She concludes that Germany could meet its needs at the start of the market ramp-up using low-cost hydrogen from domestic production or through imports from countries with high scores.
However, if demand increases, this production capacity would not be sufficient. In that case, according to Klaas, it might make sense to absorb higher import costs in the interest of supply security.
